Setting priorities for Y11 as a school leader in Cymru/Wales

Now that the autumn term is underway for schools in Wales, here are some reflections from Alps on setting priorities for Y11.

1. Understand Your Context: GCSE Attainment

1. In Wales the 2025 national GCSE results were set at pre-pandemic standards as in 2024.
   
2. Table 1 shows the results for 16-year olds in Wales in 2025 and previous years.
   

Table 1 (Adapted from JCQ data)

1. In Wales the national GCSE results have returned to pre-pandemic standards since 2024.
   
2. Results were awarded lower in both 2024 & 2025 than in either 2022 or 2023 which were ‘transitional’ years.
   
3. Results in Wales were slightly higher at all grade thresholds in 2025 than in 2024.
   
4. Results were slightly lower in 2025 than in 2019 except at A*-B, A*-A and A*.
   
5. Results in Wales and Northern Ireland are awarded at A*-G.  England uses grades 9-1.
   
6. Results at key thresholds in Wales were lower than in England in 2025.
   
7. Results were considerably higher in Northern Ireland than in Wales. For example, almost a third of the grades in Northern Ireland were A*-A compared to nearly a fifth of the grades in Wales.
   
8. Table 2 (adapted from JCQ data) compares the results for 16-year-olds in Wales, England & Northern Ireland in 2025.
   

Table 2 – GCSE Results – England, Wales and Northern Ireland – 16 Year Olds

Infographic 1 below from Qualifications Wales provides a useful visual summary.

GCSE Results in Wales: Summer 2025

Question to ask yourself: How does your school’s GCSE performance compare with these national figures?

2. Understand Your Context: Capped 9 Subject Results

Tables 3 to 6 below, from JCQ show the best results achieved by the 2025 cohort in Literacy and Numeracy and compares with all years since 2017:

Table 3: GCSE Welsh Language results graded A* to G (Percentage of grades awarded)

Table 4: GCSE English Language Results graded A* to G (Percentage of grades awarded)

Table 5: GCSE Mathematics results graded A* to G (Percentage of grades awarded)

Table 6: GCSE Mathematics – Numeracy results graded A* to G (Percentage of grades awarded)

1. In 2025, results in Welsh Language were lower at A*, A*-A, A*-C and A*-G than in 2024.
   
2. In 2025, results in English Language were higher at A*, A*-A, A*-C and A*-G than in 2024.
   
3. In 2025, results in Mathematics were higher at A*, A*-A, A*-C and A*-G than in 2024.
   
4. In 2025, results in Mathematics – Numeracy were higher at A* and A*-G than in 2024. Results at A*-C were lower than in 2024.

Table 7 from the JCQ shows the results in 2025 in the sciences (as well as French, geography and history) and compares them with results in 2024.

Table 7: 2025 vs 2024 Sciences, French, Geography and History Results

1. You will know your own 2025 Capped 9 score but the average Capped 9 indicator (interim measures version) for 2025 will not be published until later in the year.
   
2. In 2023/24 the average Capped 9 indicator (interim measures version) was 352.1 points, a decrease from 358.1 points in 2022/23. It was 354.4 points in 2018/19.
   
3. The 2023/24 results by selected pupil characteristics showed that:
   
4. Girls scored higher in the Capped 9 indicator (interim measures version).
   
5. From 2019 to 2024 the Capped 9 indicator gap between males and females narrowed from 32.9 to 21.9 points.
   
6. Pupils not eligible for Free School Meals consistently score higher in the Capped 9 indicator (interim measures version) than pupils eligible for Free School Meals. In 2024 the gap narrowed to 80.8 points from 87.1 points in 2023. The gap was 77.3 in 2019.
   
7. In the Capped 9 indicator (interim measures version), Black, Asian and minority ethnic pupils achieve better outcomes than White British pupils.

Question to ask yourself: How does your school’s performance compare with these national figures?

3. Understand Your Context: How does your school’s performance compare with these national figures?

2025 results were slightly higher at all thresholds compared to 2024 and higher than in 2019 except at Pass as Table 8 from Qualifications Wales demonstrates.

Table 8: National/Foundation (KS4) Skills Challenge Certificate percentage results

4. Understanding Your Gender Gap

• Girls continue to out-perform boys at KS4, for example by 6.6% at A*-A and 7.4% at A*-C. The gap at A*-C has narrowed slightly in 2025.
• Table 9 below from JCQ compares the gender gaps through time from 2018 to 2025. 
  

Table 9: Gender Gaps – 2018-2025

5. Understanding Your eFSM Gap at GCSE

• Figures for 2025 are not yet available.
  

Table 10: FSM gap in subject indicators

Question to ask yourself: How does your school’s performance compare with these national figures?

6. Set priorities based on your school or college’s performance in 2025

Key questions for this time of year:

1. How does your 2025 Capped 9 score compare with 2024?
   
2. How does your Alps’ Quality Indicator compare with previous years?
   
3. Which subjects were your shining value-added stars?
   
4. Which subjects with significant cohort numbers were blue (matching the bottom 25% nationally)?
   
5. Which subjects saw value-added drop most significantly in 2025?
   
6. Did any significant student groups perform poorly? How did your eFSM or your ALN students perform?
   
7. Are there any anomalies or surprises in your teaching set performance?  
   
8. Are there trends across subjects which are set by ability?
   
9. Which departments require additional support/resources in 2025-26?
   
10. Do you need to adjust your strategic priorities for 2025-26?
    
11. What are you doing right now to try to consolidate strengths and eradicate weaknesses in 2025-26? 

7. Set priorities based on your new Y11’s end of Y10 data

1. Key questions and suggestions for this time of year:
2. In terms of Capped 9 our advice is to keep a tight focus on the Literacy, Numeracy and Science slots as these slots contain most of the subjects taken by all your students. Beyond that, your other most populous subjects, for example the Welsh Baccalaureate Skills Challenge Certificate, will have the biggest impact on student outcomes, post-16 pathways and your Capped 9 points score.
   
3. What strategic ‘data’ priorities had already emerged before the end of the Summer Term in Year 10?
   
4. What priorities relating to attendance or attitude to learning or mental health etc were significant issues during Y10?
   
5. At Alps, we suggest uploading a Monitoring Point Zero (MPZ) at the start of Y11. Essentially this is your final Y10 assessment data but adjusted so all Y11 teachers can see their Y11 set’s baseline based on end of Y10 performance.
   
6. Which other priorities are now in place because of any disappointing surprises in terms of your 2025 KS4 results?

8. Best Practice

Key suggestions for this time of year:

1. The academic year often begins with in-depth evaluation of results in Raising Standards meetings with subject leads. Perhaps in September 2025 these meetings need a focus on current Y11, where they appear to be based on Y10 assessment, and how best to move forwards effectively.
   
2. As always, we recommend that you prioritise those things you can control, such as the quality of teaching and learning, the quality of guidance and support and the quality of your leadership at all levels.
   
3. Create a realistic assessment timetable with subject leads to enable students to practice and master the skills required in examinations.
   
4. Use Alps Connect effectively throughout the year to help identify subjects, sets, student groups and students for support (and praise).
   
5. Do all you can to be relentlessly positive both with your students and their teachers.
   
6. Your top priority must involve putting the students’ needs and interests first, aiming for each to reach their potential and, perhaps crucially, to achieve positive post-16 pathways.

9. Tracking Y11 in Connect during 2024-25

During 2025-26, Alps will continue to offer the 2019 data set for you to track progress against. As in 2024 and 2025, Qualifications Wales intends for results to be set close to pre-pandemic ‘2019’ standards.

Schools should use whichever WNT tests they have for students in this cohort to act as their KS4 baseline, for example Y7, Y8 or Y9.

If students have taken no Welsh National tests, CAT4 MEAN SAS results may be used as a prior attainment baseline, as set out in Table 11.

Table 11: Prior Attainment Bands

10. Embarking on the new Curriculum for Wales Qualifications with Y10

1. Roll-out of the Curriculum for Wales began in September 2022 and extended to Year 9 in September 2024.
   
2. Y10 in September 2025 are the first cohort studying GCSEs under the new Curriculum for Wales.
   
3. Most new qualifications started being taught in September 2025, although some won’t be introduced until 2026 or 2027.
   
4. WJEC has published specifications of the qualifications being introduced in September 2025.
   
5. WJEC has also published a comprehensive assessment pack for each qualification, including detailed assessment arrangements, sample assessment materials and guidance for teaching.
   
6. A summary of which qualifications will be introduced and when is available on WJEC’s and Qualifications Wales’ websites.
   
7. Currently mapping the new qualifications in Alps’ Connect is not yet available but will be soon. Clearly there are no results for us to create value-added thermometers from so in the early years of these new qualifications we will do our best to support your ability to track towards success for all of your students.
   

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