Now that the Autumn Term is underway for schools and colleges in Wales, here are some reflections from Alps on setting Post-16 priorities for Y13.

1. Understand your context: A Level raw attainment

In Wales A Level results were brought back close to pre-pandemic standards in 2024.

Table 1 shows how results in 2024 compare with results awarded from 2019 to 2024.

The falls from 2023 were most significant at A*-B upwards.

Results were higher in 2024 than in 2019, except at A*-D and below.

Table 2 shows how the results awarded in Wales in 2024 compare with results awarded in England and Northern Ireland.

In Wales, the Advanced Skills Challenge results awarded were higher in 2024 than either 2019 or 2023.

Table 3 shows how results in 2024 compare with results awarded from 2019 to 2024. Table 3 (from the WJEC)

3. Understand your context: AS Level results

In Wales AS results were also brought back close to pre-pandemic standards in 2024.

Table 4 shows how results in 2024 compare with results awarded from 2019 to 2024.

JCQ 2024

1. The 2019 benchmark, based on 2019 DfE data & 2019 Welsh customer data
   
2. The 2024 Alps Welsh Provider benchmark

1. In 2022, the award of GCSE grades transitionally had an inflationary impact on Post-16 prior attainment (PA) for the 2024 A Level cohort in Wales.
2. More students were in high PA bands in 2024 than in 2019, as Graph A illustrates.
   

1. Be aware that your new Y13 cohort achieved average GCSE scores via ‘transitional’ GCSE results in 2023. Check whether they have a higher average GCSE score than your 2019 cohort, which is likely because their GCSE results were obtained in a transitional grading year. Although your new Y13 cohort were awarded GCSE results ‘transitionally’ in 2023, and so your average GCSE score may be higher than in 2019, our clear advice is to set targets, the Alps Minimum Expected Grades, (MEGs) and track progress using the 2019 national benchmark. This may produce more ‘cautious’ value-added in-year, but we feel this is the best benchmark to track against towards the 2025 outcomes, and should result in a welcome ‘bounce’ in your thermometers once we again crunch the Welsh A Level customer data in 2025.
   
2. What strategic priorities have emerged from this cohort’s AS results?
   
3. Which AS subjects retained comparatively low percentages of students into Y13 for A Level in September 2024? What issues does this reveal?
   
4. What priorities relating to attendance or attitude to learning or mental health, etc., were significant issues during Y12?
5. As some students may have either left school or college in the summer or dropped or switched a subject for Y13 or gone back to Y12, at Alps we suggest uploading a Monitoring Point Zero (MPZ) at the start of Y13:
   a. Essentially this is your AS results’ data, but edited to only include students now in Y13 and only showing grades in subjects they are continuing to study in Y13
   b. Sets / teachers should also be adjusted so all Y13 teachers can see their Y13 set’s baseline based on AS performance.
6. The academic year often begins with in-depth evaluation of results in Raising Standards meetings with subject leads. Perhaps this Autumn, meetings also need to focus on current Y13, where they appear to be, based on AS results, and how best to move forwards effectively.
7. We recommend that you prioritise the elements you can control, such as the quality of teaching and learning, the quality of guidance and support, and the quality of your leadership at all levels.
   
8. Create a realistic assessment timetable with subject leads, to enable students to practice and master the skills required in examinations.
9. Take decisions now about AS re-sits. Can students who are targeting improving AS marks be additionally accommodated in Y12 lessons?
   
10. We recommend a sharp focus on the subjects that are taken by larger cohorts of students as these subjects will have the most significant impact on this cohort’s outcomes and destinations and your value-added.
11. Your top priority must involve putting the students’ needs and interests first, aiming for each to reach their potential and, perhaps crucially, to achieve positive post-18 pathways.
    
12. Use Alps Connect effectively throughout the year to help identify subjects, sets, student groups and students for support (& praise).