Hitting the ground running in September 2024 - Setting priorities for Y13 as a Post-16 Leader in England

Hitting the ground running in September 2024 - Setting priorities for Y13 as a Post-16 Leader in England

Now that the Autumn Term is underway for schools and colleges in England, here are some reflections from Alps on setting Post-16 priorities for Y13.

1. Understand your context: raw attainment

Table 1 shows how results in 2024 compare with results awarded from 2019 to 2024.



A-level grades in England have risen slightly compared to 2023 at A*-D and higher. For example, A*-A was 27.6% in 2024 compared to 26.5% in 2023.
Results in 2024 were also higher than in 2019 at A*-C and higher. At A*-D and A*-E results in 2024 were lower than in 2019.

Table 2 shows how the results awarded in England in 2024 compare with results awarded in Wales and Northern Ireland.




The gaps in regional performance were significant again in 2024, as Table 3 from the JCQ demonstrates.
These variations mean students in many areas are far less likely to go on to university / higher education.



Question to ask yourself: How does your school or college’s performance compare with these national and regional figures?


2. Understand your context: Value-added

Once again in 2024, Alps is offering two different benchmarks in Connect to evaluate your value-added against, the 2019 DfE benchmarks and 2024 Alps customer-based benchmarks.

On Results Day, your value-added was calculated against benchmarks created from the 2019 DfE data. Alps chose this as the most appropriate benchmark because, as in 2023, results were being brought back by Ofqual to 2019 standards.

 

However, GCSE results were awarded more generously in 2022 than usual, so students who sat A Levels in 2024 had higher than normal prior attainment compared to the 2019 cohort.



We can see that the 2022 GCSE results were closer to 2021 (TAGs) than 2019 (Exams). They were also similar to the 2020 (CAG) results, especially at 9-5+.

Table 5 compares average GCSE scores for 2019, 2022, 2023 and 2024 based on Alps’ customer data. It is important to recognise, that the average GCSE score for the 2024 A Level cohort was similar to the 2022 cohort who had GCSE grades awarded by CAGs in 2020.




The impact on prior attainment of the 2024 cohort is similar to the impact of 2021 TAGs on the prior attainment of the 2023 cohort.

35% of A Level students were in the two highest Prior Attainment bands in 2024 compared to 24% in 2019 and 38% in 2023.

The difference in prior attainment profiles between 2019 and 2024, but with similar A level outcomes, means that results will look weaker against the 2019 national benchmarks comparatively, producing a lower than usual value-added Quality Indicator in 2024 for a large percentage of centres.

To support fairer analysis of your examination results, Alps has also released its 2024 customer-based benchmarks to give you a true insight into how you have performed this year. This takes the higher prior attainment of the 2024 A Level cohort into account to give a fairer assessment of 2024 value-added progress, to enable you to set useful, accurate strategic objectives for the year to come. Both the 2019 DfE benchmark and the 2024 customer-based benchmarks are available in Connect to analyse against, to give you the full picture.


Question to ask yourself: How did your school or college perform against these two benchmarks, and which one are you using to review performance and establish priorities?


3. Vocational outcome summaries

​VTQ / Applied General Summary
  1.  250,000 VTQ results were issued in 2024, across 15 subjects.
  2. 217,600 results were for Applied Generals, 32,400 were for Tech Levels.
  3. Business, administration and law is the most popular sector subject area.
  4. Nearly 22,100 top grades have been awarded.
  5. Compared to 2019, the percentage of students achieving a qualification equivalent to DDD or higher is largely the same.
  6. The percentage achieving DD or higher is slightly higher (49% compared to 45%).

T Levels Summary

  1. A total of 7,262 learners from the third wave of T Levels were awarded results in 2024, compared to the 10,253 who started in 2022. 29% did not complete their courses.
  2. Table 6 from SCHOOLSWEEK shows the completion rate per route.



  1. 88.7% (6,543) of those that completed their courses achieved a pass or above.
  2. The overall pass rate fell from 92.2% in 2022, to 90.5% in 2023, and to 88.7% in 2024.
  3. The proportion of students that achieved the top two grades of Distinction* or Distinction is 15.9% in 2024, compared to 22.2% in 2023.
  4. Around 75% of entries in T-levels by female students were in education and early years and health.

4. Set priorities based on your school or college’s performance in 2024. Key questions for this time of year:
  1. What strategic priorities emerge from your raw results?
  2. What strategic priorities emerge from your value-added?
  3. Was the performance of any significant student group concerning?
  4. Which subjects performed best and least well in 2024?
  5. Which subjects predicted final grades most or least accurately in 2024?
  6. Which subjects had inconsistent performance at teaching set level?
  7. What are you doing right now, as a result of your analysis, to try to consolidate strengths and eradicate weaknesses in 2024-25?

5. Set priorities based on your new Y13’s end of Y12 data. Key questions and suggestions for this time of year:
  1. What strategic ‘data’ priorities had already emerged before the end of the Summer Term in Y12?
  2. What priorities relating to attendance or attitude to learning or mental health etc were significant issues during Y12?
  3. Some students may have either left school or college in the summer or dropped or switched a subject for Y13 or gone back to Y12. At Alps we suggest uploading a Monitoring Point Zero (MPZ) at the start of Y13. Essentially this is your final Y12 assessment data but edited to only include students now in Y13 and only showing grades in subjects they are studying in Y13. Sets / teachers should also be adjusted so all teachers can see their Y13 set’s baseline based on end of Y12 performance.
  4. Which other priorities are now in place because of any disappointing surprises in terms of 2024 results?

6. Best Practice - Key considerations:
  1. The academic year often begins with in-depth evaluation of results in Raising Standards meetings with subject leads. Perhaps in September 2024, these meetings need a focus on current Y13, where they appear to be based on Y12 assessment, and how best to move forwards effectively.
  2. As always, we recommend that you prioritise those things you can control, such as the quality of teaching and learning, the quality of guidance and support, and the quality of your leadership at all levels. 
  3. Create a realistic assessment timetable with subject leads to enable students to practice and master the skills required in examinations.
  4. Use Alps Connect effectively throughout the year to help identify subjects, sets, student groups and students for support (& praise).
  5. We recommend a sharp focus on the subjects that are taken by larger cohorts of students as these subjects will have the most significant impact on this cohort’s outcomes and destinations and your value-added.
  6. Do all you can to be relentlessly positive both with your students and their teachers.
  7. Your top priority must involve putting the students’ needs and interests first, aiming for each to reach their potential and, perhaps crucially, to achieve positive post-18 pathways.

7. Setting Targets based on Alps MEGs for Y13
  1. In 2024 the higher than usual percentage of students in the highest Alps PA bands (1 & 2) means that the benchmark based on Alps 2024 customer data depresses the top 25% points achieved by students in PA bands 1-9.
  2. Basing target-setting on this data would lower MEGs for some the students in PA bands 1, 2 and 6 as Table 7 demonstrates.



  3. Remember it is very likely your Y13 students will have already been set target grades based on MEGs at the start of Y12. I would suggest that depressing their aspirations at the start of Y13 would not be a good idea.

8. Tracking Y12 and Y13 in Connect during 2024-25
  1. During 2024-25, we will continue to offer the 2019 DfE national data set for you to track progress against, as it seems more certain that 2025 results in England will be set to this standard.
  2. You will have the option to use our 2024 customer benchmarks for tracking and monitoring if you chose. However, note that these are based on a cohort with higher prior attainment comparatively and slightly higher 2024 results.
  3. Select whichever benchmark you feel is most appropriate for you. As GCSE results were brought back close to 2019 standards in both 2023 and 2024, I would suggest that it seems likely that value-added based on 2019 national benchmarks are likely to give a more reliable assessment of progress for both Y12 and Y13 towards results in 2025 & 2026.
  4. Looking forwards, after the Results Days in 2025, we will again analyse customer data as early as possible and make analysis based on the actual 2025 results available to our schools and colleges.

9.  A reminder – the 2024 Performance Tables
  1. Post-16 Value-Added has not been measured or published in Performance Tables for the 2022 or 2023 Post-16 cohorts because their prior attainment was based on teacher assessment (CAGs and TAGs).
  2. For those 2 years the Performance Tables have only focused on raw attainment – the average A Level grade and the average Applied General grade.
  3. We expect that value-added progress will return as a headline measure in the 2024 Performance Tables, so it becomes crucial again for your school or college to have an insight of your progress measures in line with this, which Alps offers.


This blog is a companion piece to our Alps webinar ‘Hitting the Ground Running: KS5 England’ which goes out live at 3.30pm on Monday 30th September 2024. This webinar will demonstrate how to use Alps Connect most effectively when tracking progress.

To register go to Hitting-the-ground-running-KS5-England

In the meantime, if you require further technical or educational support, contact us at support@alps.education or education@alps.education