Important Headline message

The new 2026 Alps A level Welsh benchmarks will be released into Connect on Wednesday 9^th September.

These will be the default benchmark in Connect, but you can still toggle to the previous 2019 benchmarks within Connect.

The 2026 Customer benchmarks are more exacting than the 2019 DfE benchmarks that you have been using from Results Day up to 9^th September – this means for the majority of Welsh Schools, your Alps analysis grades will go down against the new 2026 benchmarks compared to the 2019 benchmarks.

This article explains what has changed, why it has changed and what it means for you.

Details

Each autumn, Alps produces a new Customer Benchmark based on that year’s national outcomes, alongside the established 2019 standard benchmark. Our 2026 analysis is now complete and will change the Quality Indicator (QI) grade for many providers.

Since 2023, Alps has produced KS5 A-level Customer Benchmarks using outcomes from Welsh schools and colleges only. These benchmarks have given group, school and college leaders a clear overview of A-level value-added progress in Wales during the post-pandemic transition.

Value added compares students’ prior attainment with their subsequent A-level and Level 3 Advanced Skills Baccalaureate Wales outcomes.

In Connect, the Quality Indicator (QI) score and grade show the value-added picture by measuring progress across all A-level subject entries, including the Level 3 Advanced Skills Baccalaureate Wales.

We expected value added in 2026 to return to pre-pandemic levels, with 2024 prior attainment and A-level outcomes broadly aligning with 2019. On that basis, we recommended using the 2019 benchmark in Connect to set targets and track students throughout 2025/26, and it remained the default benchmark on A-level Results Day 2026.

Our subsequent analysis of 2026 A-level and Level 3 Advanced Skills Baccalaureate Wales outcomes found that:

1.       Students’ prior attainment in 2026, based on their average GCSE outcomes in 2024, was broadly in line with pre-pandemic 2019 levels.

2.       A-level and Level 3 Advanced Skills Baccalaureate Wales attainment was significantly higher than in 2019, particularly among students in the moderate to lower prior-attainment bands. Their strong performance in Level 3 courses is a notable achievement.

The 2026 cohort therefore presents a markedly different and more demanding value-added picture. Compared with the 2019 benchmark, the 2026 Alps Customer Benchmark will lower the Quality Indicator (QI) grade for 84.9% of schools and colleges. This mainly reflects stronger value-added progress across Wales in 2026, driven by higher grades.

For most providers, the decrease in QI grade will be relatively small: around 72.5% of affected schools and colleges will fall by just one Alps grade. The remainder will fall by two grades and, in some cases, three. We recognise that this is a significant change to Connect analysis, so we are notifying all school and college leaders before the new benchmark is released in Alps Connect.

The impact on each provider is therefore likely to depend on the proportion of students in the middle and lower prior-attainment bands, who made greater progress in 2026 than comparable students in 2019.

A lower QI grade does not mean poorer student performance

A lower QI grade does not mean that your students performed less well. It means that the national comparison group achieved stronger outcomes. The more demanding 2026 benchmark reflects the improved results achieved by students across Wales over the past seven years—progress that should be celebrated.

We recognise that a lower QI grade under the 2026 benchmark may be disappointing, particularly after strong performance against the 2019 benchmark. The explanation below sets out why the change has occurred.

Why the benchmark has changed

Because both prior attainment and A-level outcomes have changed since 2019, the benchmark must be recalibrated periodically using more recent national data.

Alps benchmarks are designed to distribute providers across the sector at approximately 25% Red, 50% Black and 25% Blue.

Against the 2019 benchmark, stronger progress among Welsh students in 2026 placed 56% of Welsh A-level providers in the Red band and only 7% in Blue. The 2026 Customer Benchmark recalibrates this distribution to 26% Red, 52% Black and 22% Blue—much closer to the intended balance.

Our analysis found no meaningful relationship between the proportion of a provider’s entries in the Level 3 Advanced Skills Baccalaureate Wales and the size of its QI grade change. This indicates a sector-wide shift rather than an effect concentrated in particular qualification mixes.

Looking ahead to the 2026/27 cohorts

The benchmark you use to analyse your 2026 outcomes is ultimately your choice. You may decide to retain the 2019 benchmark if it has helped motivate staff in the weeks following results.

For target setting and tracking with incoming year groups, however, we strongly recommend using the 2026 Alps Customer Benchmark. It is based on 2026 outcomes, and the value-added picture in 2027 is likely to be similar. Using the new benchmark to set aspirational sixth-form targets will therefore help staff maintain high expectations and strive for continued excellence.

What's changing in Alps Connect

The benchmark in Connect will be updated on Wednesday 9 September, when the 2026 Customer Benchmark will become the default. You will still be able to view and report against the 2019 national data by using the benchmark toggle in Connect. Here is a link to our Knowledge Base article on how to change your benchmark in Connect using the benchmark toggle function.  https://support.alps.education/portal/en/kb/articles/benchmark-selector

Find out more

Join our free Alps Senior Leaders Update webinar this Thursday, 10 September, at 3.30 pm. We will explain the analysis in detail and discuss what it means for tracking and monitoring progress in 2026–27. You can register here.

The appendix below provides further detail on this year’s analysis.

Appendix: The 2026 Welsh benchmark in detail

About this analysis

This analysis compares the 2026 Alps Customer Benchmark against the 2019 National Standard Benchmark. It was run on 2 September 2026 using data from 73 Welsh providers.

Cohort profile: how the 2026 cohort compares with 2019

Prior attainment in 2026 is broadly comparable with 2019. The two distributions are closely aligned across Bands 1 to 8—Band 1 contains the highest prior-attaining students and Band 11 the lowest—with the 2026 cohort slightly larger at the lower end: 10.3% against 8.1% in Band 9, 6.3% against 2.7% in Band 10 and 2.0% against 0.3% in Band 11. It is the mid to lower groups whose outcomes drive most of the change in the benchmark.

Figure A1: Percentage of cohort by Alps Band—Alps 2026 Customer Benchmark against the National 2019 Standard Benchmark.

Outcomes: how Minimum Expected Points have moved

Minimum Expected Points (MEPs) are the points a student in each band is expected to achieve. For the highest bands the 2026 expectation is essentially unchanged—124.1 against 125.0 in Band 1—but from Band 5 downwards it rises consistently, by around three to seven points: 96.7 against 92.0 in Band 5 and 81.3 against 74.3 in Band 9. Students in the moderate and lower bands achieved substantially stronger Level 3 outcomes in 2026, so the benchmark now expects more of them.

Figure A2: Minimum Expected Points by Alps Band—Alps 2026 Customer Benchmark against the National 2019 Standard Benchmark.

Band-by-band change in Minimum Expected Points

The band-level detail shows how uneven the change is. Bands 1, 2 and 4 fall slightly (−0.92, −2.21 and −0.71 points) and Band 3 rises by 1.15, while Bands 5 to 8 rise by between 3.07 and 4.67 points.

Figure A3: Change in Minimum Expected Points by prior-attainment band (Bands 1–8), 2019 National Standard Benchmark against the Alps 2026 Customer Benchmark.

What this means for Quality Indicator grades

Across the 73 providers, the average movement is a fall of 1.11 QI grades: 84.9% see a lower grade, 13.7% no change and 1.4% an improvement. Most affected providers move by a single Alps grade, with a smaller number moving by two or three.

Figure A4: QI grade shift for Welsh A-level providers when moving from the 2019 National Standard Benchmark to the Alps 2026 Customer Benchmark.

Rebalancing the Red, Black and Blue distribution

Alps benchmarks are designed to place roughly 25% of providers in Red, 50% in Black and 25% in Blue. Measured against the 2019 benchmark, 2026 Welsh outcomes gave 56% Red, 37% Black and 7% Blue; under the 2026 Customer Benchmark this becomes 26%, 52% and 22%—close to the intended balance, and a QI grade that once again discriminates between providers.

Figure A5: Distribution of Welsh A-level providers across Red, Black and Blue QI grade bands under the 2019 National Standard Benchmark (NBM) and the Alps 2026 Customer Benchmark (CBM 26).

Benchmark table in Connect and Summit

The table below shows the benchmark sets that are available in the platform for each toggle.