Interpretation of KS5 Results on Results Day – approach with caution AUGUST 2024

Interpretation of KS5 Results on Results Day – approach with caution AUGUST 2024

In this article we outline why interpretation and analysis of the 2024 Key Stage 5 outcomes  across England and Wales should be approached with caution in terms of the value-added grades assigned. 

High level Summary
  1. In England, students completing their Key Stage 5 courses have elevated prior attainment baselines from the Key Stage 4 outcomes in 2022.The overall standards are likely to remain similar to 2019 levels. This will cause analysis based on the 2019 DfE National data on Results Day to be more ‘blue’ than perhaps it is in reality
  2. In Wales, students at KS5 had a higher prior attainment on entry (2022 GCSE outcomes) than in 2019, and outcomes are due to return towards at 2019 standards. Value-added grades in Connect and Summit are likely to be less red on results day. Provider benchmarks will offer an opportunity to see your value-added against a Wales-only 2024 provider benchmark. 
  3. Client benchmark timeline for publication 
    1. A level England - Tuesday 27 August
    2. BTEC 2016/Cam Tec England - Monday 9 September 
    3. A level Wales - Thursday 12 September
Note that the current default benchmark in Connect and Summit is the 2019 national benchmark.

Alps KS5 Benchmarks in 2023 

 

At Alps our value-added analysis is based on national datasets provided to us by the DfE.  The last national dataset released for KS5, was in 2019.  In our Connect and Summit platforms,we have used this 2019 benchmark to provide a consistent baseline through the pandemic to support schools and colleges in making judgements on improvement priorities. 


In 2022, we provided schools and colleges in England with A-level analysis based on the 2019 DfE dataset, alongside trialling  an alternative analysis based on benchmarks generated from 2022 Alps provider data.  This alternative analysis was made available via a benchmark toggle in Connect.  We did this to support schools and colleges due to the unique nature of A-level outcomes in 2022.  


After this trial and very positive feedback from schools and colleges in England, we generated provider benchmarks in 2023 for England and Wales.  Schools and colleges in both England and Wales were able to analyse their 2023 A-level results using both sets of benchmarks. Results in 2023 were unique due to the elevated nature of CAG/TAG/CDG baseline assessments in 2020 and 2021. Standards moved back to 2019 levels in England and in Wales outcomes returned towards the 2019 percentages. This meant that analysis of 2023 results against the 2019 benchmarks showed a tendency towards being 'less red' in Alps terms than they were once results were analysed against 2023 provider benchmarks. We advised that our 2023 A-level provider benchmarks may have given a more accurate reflection of your value-added outcomes and be the best benchmark to use when identifying improvement priorities. 


The situation in 2024

  1. In England, students at KS5 had a higher prior attainment on entry (2022 GCSE outcomes) than in 2019, and outcomes are due to remain at 2019 standards. Caution: value-added grades in Connect and Summit are likely to be less red on results day. 
  2. In Wales, students at KS5 had a higher prior attainment on entry (2022 GCSE outcomes) than in 2019, and outcomes are due to return to 2019 standards. 
Caution: value-added grades in Connect and Summit are likely to be less red on results day. Provider benchmarks will offer an opportunity to see your value-added against a Wales-only benchmark. As with 2023 outcomes, we believe that there will be a benefit to waiting until the release of the Alps provider benchmarks into the platforms before deep analysis of your KS5 results. The provider benchmark should give a fairer representation of the value-added situation and outcomes for 2024.