Now that the Autumn Term is underway for schools and colleges in England, here are some reflections from Alps on setting priorities for Y11 in 2024-25.

Table 1 below shows how results for all students in England in 2024 compared with results awarded from 2019 to 2023.

1. Compared with 2023 outcomes, the 2024 results are marginally higher at 9-7+ and slightly lower at all other thresholds, except 9-1.
2. Compared with 2019 outcomes, the 2024 results are higher at 9-4+ and lower at all other thresholds.
   

Table 2 below shows how results in England in 2024 for 16-year-olds compared with results awarded from 2019 to 2023.

JCQ 2024 and Alps Gap Analysis figures 2024

1. As expected, GCSE results for 16-year-olds in England were broadly similar (though marginally higher at most thresholds) to results in 2019 and 2023.
   For example:
1. a very small increase in 9-7 grades, from 22.4% in 2023 to 22.6% in 2024.
   
2. a very small increase in 9-5 grades from 54.4% in 2023 to 54.6% in 2024.
   
3. a tiny increase in 9-4 grades from 70.3% in 2023 to 70.4% in 2024.
   
2. The average GCSE grade of the 2024 KS4 cohort was marginally higher than that of both the 2023 & 2019 KS4 cohorts, as Graph A below from the JCQ demonstrates:

1. In England and Northern Ireland, grade boundaries were decided ‘normally’ in 2024.
   
2. Qualifications Wales used statistics to help set grade boundaries, to prevent grades dropping below 2019 levels.
   
3. Table 3 below shows how the results awarded in England in 2024 for 16-year-olds compared with results awarded in Wales and Northern Ireland.
   
4. Results in Wales & Northern Ireland are awarded at A*-G. Results at key thresholds were lower than in England in Wales, but considerably higher in Northern Ireland.
   

1. Results across the English regions were broadly in line with those in 2019. The exception was London, where attainment in 2024 rose slightly.
   
2. The education secretary in England, Bridget Phillipson, expressed concern the results show “entrenched regional disparities” – as do the 2024 A Level results.
   
3. Table 4 from the JCQ shows regional variations in 2024, at 9-7, 9-4 and 9-1.
   

 

1. Table 5 from SCHOOLSWEEK shows how the award of 5+ and 7+ grades has varied across subjects in 2019, 2023 and 2024.
   

2. Understand your context: Progress 8

1. Your Progress 8 will only be certain when the DfE releases unvalidated Performance data and A8 estimates based on the 2024 national results in October.
   
2. Alps used the 2023 DfE Attainment 8 estimates to calculate your P8 on Results Day.
   
3. Based on their Early Results Service, FFT are suggesting that A8 performance is broadly in line with 2023, except in the Open Bucket where performance in 2024 may have dropped from 2023. See Table 6, below.

1. In 2022 and 2023, schools using Alps at KS4 have typically outperformed the nation in terms of P8 scores as Table 7 demonstrates.
   

 

Alps 2024

 

Important - Alps Benchmarks and P8 this year:

1. Since our KS4 outcomes based on customer data are higher than the national averages, we will not be offering 2024 KS4 Alps customer benchmarks nor customer A8 estimates in Connect, as the high performance of Alps’ customers would create a more challenging benchmark than 2024 national figures, making results look (unfairly) weaker than they actually are, compared to the national outcomes.
   
2. We will retain the 2023 DfE A8 figures for Progress 8 (P8) calculations until October and, as soon as the DfE releases the unvalidated 2024 A8 values and the provisional P8s in October, Alps will update P8 in Connect.
   
3. Please note, even though Progress 8 will not be an accountability measure in 2025 and 2026, as current Y10 and current Y11 have no KS2 scores, you will still be able to calculate ‘indicative’ P8s in Connect in 2024-25 and 2025-26.
   

Questions to ask yourself: How happy are you with your estimated P8 & your Alps’ Quality Indicator. Did any key subjects or student cohorts have a negative impact?

1. Table 9 from Ofqual shows the Tech Award results issued by each subject sector in 2024.
   

1. Graph C from FFT suggests that attainment has fallen slightly.
   

1. What strategic priorities emerge from your raw results?
   
2. What strategic priorities emerge from your P8 / Alps’ value-added?
   
3. Was the performance of any significant student group concerning?
   
4. Which subjects performed best and least well in 2024?
   
5. Which subjects predicted final grades most or least accurately in 2024?
   
6. Which subjects had inconsistent performance at teaching set level?
   
7. What are you doing right now to try to consolidate strengths and eradicate weaknesses in 2024-25?
   

1. What strategic ‘data’ priorities had already emerged before the end of the Summer Term in Y10? At Alps, we suggest uploading a Monitoring Point Zero (MPZ) at the start of Y11. Essentially, this is your final Y10 assessment data but adjusted so all Y11 teachers can see their Y11 set’s baseline, based on end of Y10 performance.
   
2. What priorities relating to attendance or attitude to learning or mental health were significant issues during Y10?
   
3. Which other priorities are now in place because of any disappointing surprises in terms of 2024 KS4 results?
   
4. The academic year often begins with in-depth evaluation of results in Raising Standards meetings with subject leads. Perhaps in 2024, these meetings need a focus on current Y11, where they appear to be based on Y10 assessment and how best to move forwards effectively.
   
5. During the year prioritise those things you can control, such as the quality of teaching and learning, the quality of guidance and support, and the quality of leadership at all levels.
   
6. As well as maths, both English and all sciences, we recommend a sharp focus on the other subjects taken by larger cohorts of Y11 students, as these subjects will have the most significant impact on this cohort’s outcomes and post-16 pathways as well as your Alps value-added.
   
7. Create a realistic assessment timetable with subject leads to enable students to practice and master the skills required in examinations.
   
8. Your top priority must involve putting the students’ needs and interests first, aiming for each to reach their potential and, perhaps crucially, to achieve positive post-16 pathways.
   
9. Use Alps Connect effectively to help identify subjects, sets, student groups and students for support (& praise).
   

1. During 2024-25, we will continue to use the 2023 DfE national data set for you to track progress against. It is highly probable that 2025 results in England will be set to a very similar standard.
   
2. Table 10 shows our KS4 Minimum Expected Grades (MEGs)for each prior attainment band based on the 2023 national data.
   
3. Table 10 also shows how schools where students have taken CAT tests can use the students’ Mean SAS for target-setting as, of course, students in Y10 & Y11 in 2024-25 do not have KS2 SAT scores
   
4. We are obviously aware that CAT scores will not provide a target-setting solution for all schools. If not available to you, we also recommend a system based on distributed ranking:
   
1. Use your typical percentages in each DfE scaled score band to provide an average to apply to current Y10 and Y11. For example, create an average for your school based on a selection of Y11 2022-23, Y11 2023-24, Y9 2024-25, Y8 2024-25 and Y7 2024-25.
   
2. Rank the students in each of your Y10 and Y11 cohorts based on academic potential, to place students in each scaled score band. You might wish to refer to:
   
1. Reading ages
   
2. Baseline Maths and English testing
   
3. Your teacher assessments in KS3
   
3. Divide the students in each DfE scaled score band further into Alps’ PA bands to set Minimum Expected Grades.
   
   
   Table 11 exemplifies the distributed ranking methodology.
   
   
   
   
   
   Alps 2024
   
   
5. Having set MEGs, whether with CAT test data or by distributed ranking, remember that we are liberated for Y10 and Y11 from accepting that the best determiner of potential at KS4 is ability in maths & English at age 11.
   
6. As these cohorts have no ‘official’ baseline, and will have no P8, a radical solution to setting personal challenge targets that is proving popular is to:
   
1. Calculate the number of students that are be in each PA band for each KS4 subject, using CATs or distributed ranking.
   
2. Issue to HoDs.
   
3. Allow each department or faculty to decide which students should be in which band based on perceived ability in their subject.
   
4. Set personalised challenge targets in each subject using that information
   
5. Expect subject teachers to ‘challenge each student to achieve the highest grade they are capable of achieving in each subject they are studying.’
   

This blog is a companion piece to our Alps webinar ‘Hitting the Ground Running: KS5 England’ which goes out live at 3.30pm on Wednesday 2nd October 2024. This webinar will demonstrate how to use Alps Connect most effectively when tracking progress.

In the meantime, if you require further technical or educational support, contact us at support@alps.education or education@alps.education