Now that the autumn term is underway for schools in Wales, here are some reflections from Alps on setting priorities for Y11.

1. In Wales the 2024 national GCSE results returned to pre-pandemic standards.
2. Table 1 shows the results for 16-year-olds in Wales in 2024 and previous years.
   

1. 63.2% of all 2024 awards for 16-year-olds in Wales were at grade C+, 2.8% lower than in 2023 and 0.6% lower than in 2019.
   
2. 2024 results for 16-year-olds in Wales were lower at all thresholds than in the final ‘transitional’ year of 2023.
   
3. Results for 16-year-olds in Wales at A*-A and A* were slightly higher in 2024 than in 2019, but were lower than in 2019 at all other thresholds.
   
4. Results at key thresholds for 16-year-olds were lower in Wales than in England in 2024 and considerably lower than in Northern Ireland.
   

 The infographic from Qualifications Wales provides a useful visual summary.

1. In 2024, results in all four subjects were lower at A*, A*-A and A*-C than in 2023. At A*-G, results are broadly the same as in 2023, apart from mathematics where there has been a 1.9% decrease in the pass ratw.
   
2. Results in 2024 for English language, Welsh language and mathematics have fallen below 2019 levels at A*, A*-C and A*-G, however in numeracy, results were higher in 2024 at A*, A*-A, A*-C and A*-G.
   
3. Table 7 shows the results in 2024 in the sciences (as well as French, geography and history).
   

 

1. The 2024 results were slightly higher at A*-B+ compared to 2023 and higher than in 2019 at A*-C+ as Table 8 above from Qualifications Wales demonstrates.
   

1. Girls continue to out-perform boys at KS4, for example by 6.3% at A+ and almost 8% at C+.
2. Table 9 below from JCQ compares the gender gaps through time from 2018 to 2024.

1. Figures for 2024 are not yet available.
   
2. Table 10 below, from Welsh Government tabulates the gaps from 2016 to 2023.
   

 Question to ask yourself: How does your school’s performance compare with these national figures?

1. How does your 2024 Capped 9 score compare with 2023?
   
2. How do your Alps’ strategic indicators compare with previous years?
   
3. Which subjects were your shining value-added stars?
   
4. Which subjects with significant cohort numbers were blue (matching the bottom 25% nationally)?
   
5. Which subjects saw value-added drop most significantly?
   
6. Did any significant student groups perform poorly? How did your eFSM students perform?
   
7. Are there any anomalies or surprises in your teaching set performance? 
   
8. Are there trends across subjects which are set by ability?
   
9. Which departments require additional support/resources in 2024-25? 
   
10. Do you need to adjust your strategic priorities for 2024-25?
    
11. What are you doing right now to try to consolidate strengths and eradicate weaknesses in 2024-25?
    

1. In terms of Capped 9 our advice is to keep a tight focus on the Literacy, Numeracy and Science slots as these slots contain most of the subjects taken by all your students. Beyond that, your other most populous subjects, for example the Welsh Baccalaureate Skills Challenge Certificate, will have the biggest impact on student outcomes, post-16 pathways and your Capped 9 points score.
   
2. What strategic ‘data’ priorities had already emerged before the end of the Summer Term in Year 10?
   
3. What priorities relating to attendance or attitude to learning or mental health etc were significant issues during Y10?
   
4. At Alps, we suggest uploading a Monitoring Point Zero (MPZ) at the start of Y11. Essentially this is your final Y10 assessment data but adjusted so all Y11 teachers can see their Y11 set’s baseline based on end of Y10 performance.
   
5. Which other priorities are now in place because of any disappointing surprises in terms of your 2024 KS4 results?
   

1. The academic year often begins with in-depth evaluation of results in Raising Standards meetings with subject leads. Perhaps in September 2024 these meetings need a focus on current Y11, where they appear to be based on Y10 assessment, and how best to move forwards effectively.
   
2. As always, we recommend that you prioritise those things you can control, such as the quality of teaching and learning, the quality of guidance and support, and the quality of your leadership at all levels.
   
3. Create a realistic assessment timetable with subject leads to enable students to practice and master the skills required in examinations.
   
4. Use Alps Connect effectively throughout the year to help identify subjects, sets, student groups and students for support (and praise).
   
5. At Alps we recommend a sharp focus on the subjects that are taken by all or most of your Y11 cohort as these subjects will have the most significant impact on this cohort’s outcomes and post-16 pathways as well as your Capped 9 points score and Alps value-added.
   
6. Do all you can to be relentlessly positive both with your students and their teachers.
   
7. Your top priority must involve putting the students’ needs and interests first, aiming for each to reach their potential and, perhaps crucially, to achieve positive post-16 pathways.
   

1. During 2024-25, Alps will continue to offer the 2019 data set for you to track progress against. As in 2024, Qualifications Wales now intends for all results to return to pre-pandemic ‘2019’ standards.
   
2. Schools should use whichever WNT tests they have for students in this cohort to act as their KS4 baseline, for example Y7, Y8 or Y9.
   
3. If students have taken no Welsh National tests, CAT4 MEAN SAS results may be used as a prior attainment baseline, as set out in Table 11.