• Attainment 8 (A8) estimates based on lower 2023 results will not be as high as the validated 2022 A8 estimates because the national results are lower in 2023. 

• Using those gives a ‘pessimistic’ view of your 2023 P8. 

• The Progress 8 scores in Alps Connect on Results Day were benchmarked against the validated 2022 A8 estimates.  
  

• Alps re-calculated these estimates based on their 2023 Client data and release updated P8 values on 4th September. 

• However, the Alps client data is not exactly representative of the nation, the outcomes are higher on average, with many schools that use Alps focusing effectively on continuous improvement.  

• Because Alps schools achieved better P8 scores in 2022 than nationally this means that our 2023 client benchmark may also give a more pessimistic P8 score than the unvalidated P8. 

• The table below compares the % of Alps 2022-23 clients with positive / negative 2022 P8 scores with the national figures. 
  

As soon as the DfE release the unvalidated 2023 A8 values and the provisional P8s in October, Alps will update P8.

• Once again in 2023, Alps is offering two different benchmarks to evaluate your value-added against, the 2019 DfE benchmark and the 2023 Alps client benchmark.  

• On Results Day your value-added was calculated against benchmarks created from the 2019 DfE data. Alps chose this as the most appropriate benchmark because results were being brought back by Ofqual to 2019 standards.  
  

• However, this benchmark may not be perfect: 

• Students in the 2023 cohort achieved KS2 scaled scores which were awarded differently to the KS2 Levels that students who took GCSEs in 2019 had received.  

• To give one example far more students were HPA when KS2 Level 5 was the HPA criteria than since a scaled score of 110+ has been the criteria. 

• In the week beginning 4 September, Alps released an alternative benchmark only based on 2023 client results’ data from our English schools. You can choose between the 2019 DfE benchmark and the Alps client benchmark, to use in Connect when analysing your data. 

• Note that the 2023 Alps client benchmark is slightly more demanding than the 2019 national benchmark for students in most PA bands. 
  

1. What strategic priorities emerge from your raw results? 

2. What strategic priorities emerge from your P8 / value-added? 

3. Was the performance of any significant student group concerning? 

4. Which subjects performed best and least well in 2023? 

5. Which subjects predicted final grades most or least accurately in 2023? 

6. Which subjects had inconsistent performance at teaching set level? 

7. What are you doing right now to try to consolidate strengths and eradicate weaknesses in 2024? 
   

1. What strategic ‘data’ priorities had already emerged before the end of the Summer Term?  

2. What priorities relating to attendance or attitude to learning or mental health etc were a significant issue during Y10? 
   

3. At Alps we suggest uploading a Monitoring Point Zero (MPZ) at the start of Y11. Essentially this is your final Y10 assessment data but adjusted so Y11 teachers can see their Y11 set’s baseline based on end of Y10 performance. 
   

3. Which other priorities are now in place because of any disappointing surprises in terms of 2023 KS4 results? 

4. The academic year often begins with in-depth evaluation of results in Raising Standards meetings with subject leads. Perhaps in 2023 these meetings need a focus on current Y11, where they appear to be based on Y10 assessment, and how best to move forwards effectively. 
   

5. As always, there is much that we do not yet know and will have little ability to control. So, we recommend you prioritise those things you can control, such as the quality of teaching and learning, the quality of guidance and support, and the quality of your leadership at all levels. 

6. Create a realistic assessment timetable with subject leads to enable students to practice and master the skills required in examinations. 

7. Use Alps Connect effectively throughout the year to help identify subjects, sets, student groups and students for support (& praise). 
   

8. As well as Maths, both English and all Science, we recommend a sharp focus on the other subjects taken by larger cohorts of Y11 students as these subjects will have the most significant impact on this cohort’s outcomes and post-16 pathways as well as your P8 and Alps VA. 

9. Do all you can to be relentlessly positive both with your students and their teachers. 

10. Your top priority must involve putting the students’ needs and interests first, aiming for each to reach their potential and, perhaps crucially, to achieve positive post-16 pathways. 
    

1. During 2023-24 we will continue to use the 2019 DfE national data set for you to track progress against as it seems certain that 2024 results in England will be set to this standard.  
   

2. It seems certain that results in 2024 will be very similar to 2023. 

3. You will have the option to use our 2023 Client data set for tracking and monitoring instead, however.  

4. Unlike the 2019 DfE data, the prior attainment in the client benchmark is KS2 scaled scores rather than Levels. 

5. Select whichever you feel is most appropriate for you.  

6. Whichever benchmark you choose to use we have tweaked the KS2 Prior Attainment (PA) bands to align more closely with the DFE’s KS2 scaled score HPA / MPA / LPA banding going forwards.  
   

7. After Results’ Day in 2024 we will analyse client data in August and, if necessary, make analysis based on our client benchmark available to schools. 
   

• In the Guide to Secondary Accountability Measures (April 2023) all the DfE state is ‘As primary tests and assessments were cancelled in academic years 2019/20 and 2020/21 due to COVID-19 disruption, there will be no KS2 prior attainment data available to use to calculate Progress 8 when the relevant cohorts reach the end of KS4 in academic years 2024/25 and 2025/26. We will explore whether there are any alternative options for producing a progress measure in the affected years and will announce our approach nearer the time. This will not necessarily follow the approach we are taking for 16-18 value added measures in 2021/22.’  

• If the DfE do announce a P8 methodology for Y11 2024-25 and Y11 2025-26 Alps will obviously ensure that schools are able to track progress using that for current Y8 and Y9 in KS4. 

• If, however, as with Post-16 VA in 2022 and 2023 the DfE decide not to publish P8 and rely on A8 and the Basics as headline measures, at Alps we are confident that you will still want to track progress in KS4 for current Y9 and Y10. 

1. Options for Y10 baselines 

• If your students sit CAT tests, you can input this directly into Connect. We already have a methodology based on the same percentage of students who have taken CAT tests being in the same bands as per the scaled scores. 
  

• We have used a similar methodology if your students have sat MiDYiS tests and you can use our conversion table to use this in Connect 
  

 

• Use your typical percentages in each scaled score band to provide an average to apply to Y9 and Y10.  

• For example, create the average for your school based on a selection of Y11 2022, Y11 2023, Y10 2023 and Y7 2023. 
  

• Rank the students in each of your new Y9 and Y10 cohorts based on academic potential. You might wish to refer to: 
  

• Reading ages 

• KS1 SAT results 

• KS2 Teacher assessment (where available) 

• Baseline Maths and English testing 
  

• Teacher assessment in KS3 – perhaps using Maths and English as the key indicators.