AS Level Wales: The 2026 Alps Customer Benchmark
The new 2026 Alps AS level Welsh benchmarks will be released into Connect on 2 October 2026.
These will be the default benchmark in Connect, but you can still toggle to the previous 2019 benchmarks within Connect.
The 2026 Customer benchmarks are slightly more exacting than the 2019 benchmarks that you have been using from Results Day up to this point, however they are less exacting than the A level benchmarks, ie fewer of you will experience a drop in overall value-added grades. This means that for around two in five Welsh schools and colleges, your AS level Alps analysis grade will go down against the new 2026 benchmark compared to the 2019 benchmark. For most others, the grade will stay the same.
This article explains what has changed, why it has changed and what it means for you.
Details
Each autumn, Alps produces a new Customer Benchmark based on that year's outcomes, alongside the established 2019 standard benchmark. This is the first year where we have been able to produce an AS level benchmark.
Our 2026 AS level analysis is now complete and will change the Quality Indicator (QI) grade for many providers.
Value added compares students' prior attainment with their subsequent AS level outcomes. In Connect, the Quality Indicator (QI) score and grade show the value-added picture by measuring progress across all AS level subject entries.
Our analysis of 2026 AS level outcomes found that:
- Students' prior attainment in 2026, based on their average GCSE outcomes in 2025, was broadly in line with pre-pandemic 2019 levels.
- AS level attainment was higher than in 2019 across the middle and lower prior-attainment bands, with expectations for Bands 4 to 10 now around three points higher. Expectations for the highest prior-attaining students are essentially unchanged.
The 2026 cohort therefore presents a slightly more demanding value-added picture. Compared with the 2019 benchmark, the 2026 Alps Customer Benchmark will lower the AS level Quality Indicator (QI) grade for 42.2% of schools and colleges. This mainly reflects stronger AS level outcomes across Wales in 2026.
For almost all affected providers, the change will be small: 37 of the 38 affected schools and colleges (97.4%) will fall by just one Alps grade, and one will fall by two. 56.7% of providers will see no change to their grade. We recognise that this is a significant change to Connect analysis, so we are notifying all school and college leaders before the new benchmark is released in Alps Connect.
The impact on each provider is likely to depend on the proportion of students in the middle and lower prior-attainment bands, who achieved stronger outcomes in 2026 than comparable students in 2019.
A lower QI grade does not mean poorer student performance
A lower QI grade does not mean that your students performed less well. It means that the national comparison group achieved stronger outcomes. The more demanding 2026 benchmark reflects the improved AS level results achieved by students across Wales since 2019, and that progress should be celebrated.
Why the benchmark has changed
Because AS level outcomes have changed since 2019, the benchmark must be recalibrated periodically using more recent data.
Alps benchmarks are designed to distribute providers across the sector at approximately 25% Red, 50% Black and 25% Blue.
Against the 2019 benchmark, stronger AS level outcomes in 2026 placed 36% of Welsh providers in the Red band and only 14% in Blue. The 2026 Customer Benchmark recalibrates this distribution to 27% Red, 47% Black and 27% Blue, very close to the intended balance.
The shift at AS level is smaller than at A level. Against the 2019 benchmark, AS level outcomes were already closer to the intended distribution, so fewer providers see their grade change.
Looking ahead to the 2026/27 cohorts
The benchmark you use to analyse your 2026 AS level outcomes is ultimately your choice. You may decide to retain the 2019 benchmark if it has helped motivate staff in the weeks following results.
For target setting and tracking with incoming Year 12 students, however, we strongly recommend using the 2026 Alps Customer Benchmark. It is based on 2026 outcomes, and the value-added picture in 2027 is likely to be similar. Using the new benchmark to set aspirational AS level targets will help staff maintain high expectations and strive for continued excellence.
What's changing in Alps Connect
The AS level benchmark in Connect will be updated on 2 October, and has been added to the default 2026 Customer Benchmark.
Appendix: The 2026 Welsh AS level benchmark in detail
About this analysis
This analysis compares the 2026 Alps AS level Customer Benchmark against the 2019 National Standard Benchmark. It was run on 24 September 2026 using 2025/26 data from 90 Welsh providers, covering 27,833 AS level entries.
Outcomes: how Minimum Expected Points have moved
Minimum Expected Points (MEPs) are the points a student in each band is expected to achieve. For the highest bands the 2026 expectation is essentially unchanged: 56.47 against 56.76 in Band 1. From Band 6 downwards it rises consistently, by around three points: 39.62 against 36.67 in Band 6 and 30.61 against 27.67 in Band 9. Students in the moderate and lower bands achieved stronger AS level outcomes in 2026, so the benchmark now expects more of them.
Band-by-band change in Minimum Expected Points
The change grows as prior attainment falls. Bands 1 to 3 barely move (−0.29, +0.87 and +0.05 points), Bands 4 and 5 rise by around one point (+1.01 and +1.08), and Bands 6 to 10 rise by between 2.65 and 3.45 points. Band 11 rises by 6.25 points, but holds only 1% of students.
Summary of MEPs and MEGs for AS
What this means for Quality Indicator grades
Every provider's QI score is lower against the 2026 benchmark. The weighted QI score falls from 0.97 to 0.93, and individual falls range from 0.02 to 0.18, with 74.4% of providers falling by 0.03 or 0.04.
Across the 90 providers, the average movement is a fall of 0.42 QI grades: 42.2% see a lower grade, 56.7% no change and 1.1% an improvement. Of the providers whose grade falls, all but one move by a single Alps grade.
Rebalancing the Red, Black and Blue distribution
Alps benchmarks are designed to place roughly 25% of providers in Red, 50% in Black and 25% in Blue. Measured against the 2019 benchmark, 2026 Welsh AS level outcomes gave 36% Red, 50% Black and 14% Blue. Under the 2026 Customer Benchmark this becomes 27%, 47% and 27%, close to the intended balance, and a QI grade that once again discriminates between providers.
Benchmark table in Connect and Summit
The table below shows the benchmark sets that are available in the platform for each toggle.