Analysis of DfE 2025 IB benchmark March 2026
2025 IB Results in England
This article presents an overview of the findings from the Alps value-added review of the DfE national dataset from 2025.
It concludes with an overview of the recommendations for benchmark selection for analysing your 2025 results for IB and for monitoring your Year 13 and 12 cohorts across 2025/26 and beyond.
Note: in addition to subject value-added analysis in Connect, we now have a Strategic report showing high level value-added analysis for your whole IB curriculum. This can be accessed within the IB Performance Measures zone in Connect.
Watch the video on the article
2025 IB - Alps analysis, MEGs and MEPs
Prior attainment baselines have been disrupted across the pandemic and this has had an impact on the value-added picture. In the absence of national data over the intervening years, the benchmark in Connect and Summit has been the 2019 DfE national dataset.
The 2024 results saw the return of an examined baseline and examined outcome set for Key Stage 5 students, and as a result we did generate benchmarks from the 2024 DfE national dataset. However, we DID NOT USE this 2024 benchmark for gradepoints from September 2024 onwards, in other words your examination results analysis in 2025 was against the 2019 benchmarks. Our justification was that we believed that the 2019 national data provided a more representative analysis for the 2025 examinations in terms of value-added. Likewise your monitoring of Year 13 and 12 cohorts across 2025/26 has also been based on 2019 benchmarks for the same reasons.
We have now had the opportunity to generate benchmarks from the 2025 DfE national dataset. In this article we will compare the Minimum Expected Points (MEPs) at the 75th percentile between 2019 and 2025 to corroborate our use of the 2019 benchmarks in this way.
For ease of reference, datasets used for the IB in recent years can be summarised as follows:
|
Sept 2018-Results 2019 Sept 2019-Results 2020 Sept 2020-Results 2021 |
Sept 2021 – Results 2022 |
Sept 2022 – Results 2023 |
Sept 2023 – Results 2024 |
Sept 2024 – Results 2025 |
Sept 2025 – Results 2026 |
|
|
Toggle 1 (default) ‘National Benchmark Set’ |
DfE ‘19 |
DfE ‘19 |
DfE ‘19 |
DfE ‘24 |
DfE ’19 |
DfE ’19 |
2025 IB - Comparison of MEPs for 2019, 2024 and 2025
The table below shows the changes in Minimum Expected Points (MEPs) between the latest three sets of data, 2019, 2024 and 2025.
And in graphical format:
As you can see, the MEPs for the new 2025 dataset are closer to 2019 values than to 2024. In most prior attainment bands, the 2024 MEPs are lower than both 2019 and 2025, meaning that were we to have used this benchmark in Connect, you would now be seeing a drop in value-added overall in switching to the new 2025 dataset.
You may see some changes in overall Quality Indicator grade and in subject value-added grades when switching from 2019 to 2025. This will vary depending on the the profile of your students across the relative prior attainment bands.
2025 IB - Summary of MEPs and MEGs with CAT4 or GCSE Prior Attainment bandings
2025 IB - Subject coverage
The following table shows the subject options where we have been able to generate Alps Subject thermometers using the 2025 National dataset.
Coming soon:
There have been many colleagues who have asked us to review the subject mapping options within Alps Connect for Language A and Language B subjects to give more flexibility when tracking student cohorts taking subjects in multiple languages. Therefore, it is our aim to extend the Language A and Language B mappings to track across the most common language options. For example, you have asked to be able to map Language B in French and in Spanish rather than a broad 'Option 1' as is present currently.
We aim to have completed this work across April and will publish more information in due course.
Summer 2026 outcomes, value-added and the recommended benchmark for monitoring
Results in 2026 and 2027 are predicted to be in line with the 2025 outcomes, and with GCSE results relatively stable from 2023 -2025, the prior attainment baseline has been reset.
Therefore the value-added picture in 2026 and 2027 is likely to be broadly in line with that of this 2025 DfE benchmark for the IB.
It is therefore our recommendation that you use this new 2025 DfE dataset from which to base your interventions and priorities for the remainder of the time you have left with your current Year 13 students, and for tracking Year 12 as they progress through their IB courses.
The default benchmark on Results Day 2026 will be the 2025 DfE national dataset.
What happens now with benchmarks in Connect and Summit?
We released the 2025 DfE benchmark for IB into Connect and Summit at 8.30am on 27 March 2026.
The benchmark was applied to the following gradepoints
- Historical gradepoints, namely the gradepoints for IB from September 2024 up to and including the examination gradepoint for 2025.
- All monitoring gradepoints from September 2025 onwards to the examination gradepoint for 2026, i.e. all gradepoints affecting current Year 13 and 12 students
- The 2025 DfE benchmark will be automatically applied to Toggle 1: National
- There is no IB benchmark on Toggle 2: Customer. Your IB analysis will be blank.
Summary of the benchmarks in Connect and Summit
The tables below show which datasets are applied to which benchmark for which Academic Year.
Sept 2018-Results 2019 Sept 2019-Results 2020 Sept 2020-Results 2021 | Sept 2021 – Results 2022 | Sept 2022 – Results 2023 | Sept 2023 – Results 2024 | Sept 2024 – Results 2025 | Sept 2025 – Results 2026 | |
Toggle 1 (default) ‘National Benchmark Set’ | DfE ‘19 | DfE ‘19 | DfE ‘19 | DfE ‘24 | DfE ’25 | DfE ’25 |
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