Alps Analysis of GCSE ENGLAND - SEPTEMBER 2024

Alps Analysis of GCSE ENGLAND - SEPTEMBER 2024

2024 GCSE Results in England 


Following the release of this years GCSE examination results we have analysed the data released by the Joint Council of Qualifications and Ofqual alongside the data uploaded to Alps by our schools to help provide you with the key information that we think will be useful at this stage.

What do we know so far?


The table below shows how results in England in 2024 for 16-year olds compared with results awarded in 2019 and 2023.














As expected, GCSE results for 16-year-olds in England were broadly similar (though marginally higher at most thresholds) to results in 2019 and 2023. 

·         The average GCSE grade of the 2024 KS4 cohort was marginally higher than that of the 2023 KS4 cohort as Graph A from the JCQ demonstrates:

 






Progress 8

·         Your Progress 8 will only be certain when the DfE releases unvalidated Performance data and A8 estimates based on the 2024 national results in October.

·         Alps used the 2023 DfE Attainment 8 estimates to calculate your P8 on Results Day. Based on their Early Results Service, FFT are suggesting that A8 performance is broadly in line with 2023 except in the Open Bucket where performance in 2024 may have dropped from 2023. 


   


Subject level outcomes

Subject level differences in grading are largely in line with 2023 and 2019.

·         In 2024 Ofqual did require awarding organisations to make some adjustments upwards to grading standards in 3 GCSEs – Computer Science, French and German.








Key Stage 4 Alps Provider Benchmarks

In this section we present our findings on the analysis we have undertaken on the schools and colleges who had submitted data to Alps in the days following KS4 Results Day. 

A key thing to note is that our provider data represented a small subsection of the national dataset at KS4. The evidence below points to the fact that schools and colleges using Alps appear to be less representative of the national dataset, with performance on average being higher than that seen by nationally published data outlines above. 


Average KS2 scores as the prior attainment baseline. 
In the table below we set out the average KS2 scores for the DfE and for the Alps provider data for cohorts completing their KS4 courses in the years from 2022 and 2024. The data begins to highlight the trend of schools and colleges using Alps being less representative of the national dataset across previous years. 



Our analysis of Minimum Expected Points (MEPs) and Grades (MEGs) required at the 75th percentile in 2024 shows again that schools and colleges using Alps have out-performed national figures seen from the 2023 DfE national dataset:




A8 comparison based on Alps 2024 customer estimates, DfE 2023 A8 estimates and Alps 2023 customer estimates. 

The AT8 line generated from Alps Providers for 2024 is largely showing above the line for 2023 DfE national. If applied to your data this, this would largely have the effect of dropping your Progress 8 score. 

Initial research published by FFT Datalab (table above) would tend to indicate that the true line for 2024 outcomes may in fact lie slightly below that of 2023. This would imply that on publication of the unvalidated AT8 table in October 2024, schools and colleges may see a slight upward shift in P8. 




Decisions on the Benchmarks in Connect and Summit

·         For reasons outlined above, we have taken the decision not to release our 2024 KS4 customer benchmark or our 2024 customer A8 estimates.

·         We will retain the 2023 DfE A8 figures for Progress 8 (P8) calculations until October.

·         As soon as the DfE releases the unvalidated 2024 A8 values and the provisional P8s in October, Alps will update P8 in Connect.

·         Even though Progress 8 will not be an accountability measure in 2025 and 2026 as current Y10 and current Y11 have no KS2 scores, we will enable the calculation of ‘indicative’ P8s in Connect in 2024-25 and 2025-26.


Finally, the overview of the datasets in use for KS4 England in the platforms are summarised in the table below: 



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