Following the release of this years A-level examination results we have analysed the data released by the Joint Council of Qualifications and Ofqual alongside the data uploaded to Alps by our schools to help provide you with the key information that we think will be useful at this stage.

What do we know so far?

A level results across Wales returned towards pre-pandemic standards. The transition period back towards 2019 outcomes saw attainment percentages drop from 2023 as expected, but remain slightly higher than in 2019. This is highlighted in the table below. 

1. the percentage A* is 3.4% lower
   
2. the percentage A*-A is 4.1% lower
   
3. the percentage A*-B is 3.7% lower
   

At a subject level results follow a varied pattern.  Analysis of A*grades below indicates that in some subjects, for example in mathematics outcomes are similar to 2019. Other subjects saw A* grades fall from 2023 to those below 2019. In others, the percentage of A* grades awarded remained higher than in 2019, eg Sociology.  Therefore colleagues should view subject attainment on an individual basis. 

The percentages of grades awarded at A*-A and A* - B show similar variation. 

Alps Provider Analysis of 2024 A-level Results - value-added analysis of Welsh providers only 

At the beginning of the 2023/24 academic year, we advised that the 2019 national dataset represented the most beneficial benchmark on which to base your target setting and tracking priorities. It was the last national benchmark and provided a robust dataset from which to set aspirational Minimum Expected Grades (MEGs). We argued that:

1. Students in Year 13 may be in higher prior attainment bands than they might have been in 2019, and therefore Minimum Expected Points and MEGs may be a grade to a split grade above where you might expect, depending on Alps band. 
   
2. Monitoring against the 2019 benchmark is likely to result in your tracking being slightly more 'blue' than it may end up when compared to Alps Welsh provider benchmarks which will be generated from 2024 results.
   
3. Taking all factors into account, we advise that you seriously consider using the 2019 national benchmarks to track Year 13 across 2023.24. We will generate a new provider benchmark in the weeks following the 2024 examination results, and we would expect that you may see your overall grades improve slightly. 
   
   

The actual 2024 value-added arrow does indeed show a more truncated picture than in 2019, and implies that improvement in your Alps grades when switching to the provider benchmark. The next section of this article will take you specific details of the data in the provider benchmark and the potential implications of the application of the Alps provider benchmark to your analysis. 

MEPs and MEGs

Implications on QI (Quality Indicator) grade