Alps Analysis of A level WALES - SEPTEMBER 2024

Alps Analysis of A level WALES - SEPTEMBER 2024

2024 A Level Results in Wales

This article presents an overview of the findings from the A level Alps provider benchmarks for Wales. It provides an overview of the national attainment picture before presenting a summary of the Alps provider Minimum Expected Grades, and Quality Indicator shifts for 2024. It concludes with an overview of the recommendations for benchmark selection for analysing your 2024 results for A level, and for target setting and tracking across 2024/25. 

The last part of this article deals with the WJEC Level 3 vocational qualifications. 

Following the release of this years A-level examination results we have analysed the data released by the Joint Council of Qualifications and Ofqual alongside the data uploaded to Alps by our schools to help provide you with the key information that we think will be useful at this stage.


What do we know so far?

A level results across Wales returned towards pre-pandemic standards. The transition period back towards 2019 outcomes saw attainment percentages drop from 2023 as expected, but remain slightly higher than in 2019. This is highlighted in the table below. 

A level Attainment Profile - Wales
Results for attainment showing gaps between 2019 and 2024, and between 2023 and 2024. 



The key points: 
Compared with 2019,
  1. the percentage A* is 1.2% higher
  2. the percentage A*-A is 3.4% higher
  3. the percentage A*-B is 2.3% higher
Compared with 2023
  1. the percentage A* is 3.4% lower
  2. the percentage A*-A is 4.1% lower
  3. the percentage A*-B is 3.7% lower

Subject attainment

At a subject level results follow a varied pattern.  Analysis of A*grades below indicates that in some subjects, for example in mathematics outcomes are similar to 2019. Other subjects saw A* grades fall from 2023 to those below 2019. In others, the percentage of A* grades awarded remained higher than in 2019, eg Sociology.  Therefore colleagues should view subject attainment on an individual basis. 



The percentages of grades awarded at A*-A and A* - B show similar variation. 




Alps Provider Analysis of 2024 A-level Results - value-added analysis of Welsh providers only 


The 2024 results see the return of an examined baseline and examined outcome set for Key Stage 5 students. Using the data submitted to Alps since results day, we have carried out a thorough analysis of the dataset and present our findings below. 

Prior attainment baseline


The table above shows that the average prior attainment GCSE score is lower than the CDGs of last year's cohort, but still higher than the 2019 value of 46.48. This means that if we were to represent the value-added profile diagrammatically over the past few years, we would see the following pattern. 





The starting point has fluctuated over the past few years, but the outcome end point has also fluctuated. The arrow shows the relative size of the value-added progress journey.

At the beginning of the 2023/24 academic year, we advised that the 2019 national dataset represented the most beneficial benchmark on which to base your target setting and tracking priorities. It was the last national benchmark and provided a robust dataset from which to set aspirational Minimum Expected Grades (MEGs). We argued that:

  1. Students in Year 13 may be in higher prior attainment bands than they might have been in 2019, and therefore Minimum Expected Points and MEGs may be a grade to a split grade above where you might expect, depending on Alps band. 
  2. Monitoring against the 2019 benchmark is likely to result in your tracking being slightly more 'blue' than it may end up when compared to Alps Welsh provider benchmarks which will be generated from 2024 results.
  3. Taking all factors into account, we advise that you seriously consider using the 2019 national benchmarks to track Year 13 across 2023.24. We will generate a new provider benchmark in the weeks following the 2024 examination results, and we would expect that you may see your overall grades improve slightly. 

The actual 2024 value-added arrow does indeed show a more truncated picture than in 2019, and implies that improvement in your Alps grades when switching to the provider benchmark. The next section of this article will take you specific details of the data in the provider benchmark and the potential implications of the application of the Alps provider benchmark to your analysis. 


MEPs and MEGs

The diagram below shows the Alps prior attainment bands for A level from 1 to 11 and the proportion of students in each band. It compares the 2019 national dataset with the Alps Welsh provider dataset from 2023 and 2024.




There remains a larger proportion of students in the top few bands, but with numbers beginning to fall. They still remain significantly higher than in 2019. 

In terms of Minimum Expected Points, diagram below compares the target points required at the 75th percentile across Alps bands. 





In most prior attainment bands, the MEPs required are below the points required in both 2023 and 2019.  

This picture is in line with the truncated progress arrow for outcomes in 2024. 






Implications on QI (Quality Indicator) grade

If we consider the impact of the difference in MEPs between 2019 and 2024 on the overall QI grade, we see the following pattern when we switch between the two benchmarks. 



On average, switching to the Alps provider benchmark increases the QI grade by 0.84. In 2023 this inflation was slightly lower at 0.76 of a grade. 
In summary, 71% of providers are likely to see a grade increase on toggling to the 2024 Alps provider benchmark, compared to 63% last year. 

We believe the 2024 Alps provider benchmark represents a more realistic overview of the 2024 outcomes from a value-added perspective, and one we recommend you use when assessing strengths and opportunities for development from the examinations. 

The Alps Provider Benchmark for 2024 is available in Connect and Summit now (12 September 2024) via the benchmark selector toggle.


Target setting and tracking across 2024/25 and beyond


Your incoming Year 13 students are set to return to a profile more similar to 2019: 
  1. Students in Year 13 for 2024.25 sat GCSE examinations in 2023 where standards were slightly above 2019 levels.  
  2. Examination outcomes for this cohort remain to be established, but are likely to be similar to levels somewhere between 2019 and 2024 depending on the ability of the cohort. 

Therefore, the 2019 national dataset would be the most likely choice when monitoring this cohort across their KS5 courses. 

We will continue to run an analysis of the Alps provider dataset in the days following the 2025 outcomes. 


Summary of the benchmarks in Connect and Summit 


The tables below show which datasets are applied to which benchmark for which Academic Year. 
 The highlighted cells indicate our recommended benchmark for each cohort. 




WJEC Level 3 qualifications in Wales

We released new Provider benchmarks for the WJEC qualifications into Connect and Summit on 24 September 2024. 
The following subjects have been benchmarked, and therefore have thermometers in the platforms: 



Findings for the WJEC Applied Certs in Criminology and Medical Science broadly follow A level pattern, with many prior attainment bands showing a lower expected point score at the 75th percentile. However there is some inconsistency across bands when comparing 2024 to the default in Connect. 
In terms of Alps Bands, the shift in Minimum Expected Points from national to Alps Provider 2024 is as follows: 

The points shift may not affect your subject value-added grade. It will depend largely on the distribution of your cohort for the subject across the prior attainment range. 

Findings for the WJEC Applied Diplomas in Criminology and Medical Science mirrors the patterns seen at A level, with Minimum Expected Points (MEPs) lower in 2024 than in the national benchmark. In terms of Alps Bands, the shift in Minimum Expected Points from national to Alps Provider 2024 is as follows: 

The points shift is likely to affect your subject value-added grade. For the majority of Providers, it may mean that the subject Alps grade is higher when analysed against the Provider benchmark. 

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